BRUSSELS – The ongoing war in Ukraine and the upcoming U.S. presidential election were key topics at the recent NATO summit in Washington. However, behind the scenes, NATO’s military planners have been grappling with the substantial costs required to address Europe’s aging defense systems.
NATO leaders agreed last year on a significant overhaul of its defense capabilities, driven by increasing concerns over Russian aggression. Since then, officials have been evaluating the minimum defense requirements needed to implement these plans. These requirements, recently sent to national governments, highlight the critical shortfalls in NATO armies and hint at the potential billions of euros needed for improvements, according to a military planner who requested anonymity.
The minimum requirements outline deficiencies in key areas such as air defenses, long-range missiles, troop numbers, ammunition, logistics, and secure battlefield communications. NATO aims to transform these requirements into binding targets for individual governments by autumn 2025, coinciding with a regular meeting of defense ministers.
Twelve military and civilian officials from Europe, speaking on condition of anonymity, provided insights into the classified plans, which identified six crucial areas needing urgent attention. These conversations revealed the extent of the challenges NATO faces in achieving its goals, especially amid potential budgetary constraints and differing views on how aggressively to respond to Russian threats.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election has further complicated matters, raising concerns that NATO’s leading power could be headed by a president critical of the alliance, such as former President Donald Trump, who has previously accused European partners of exploiting U.S. military support.
At the Washington summit, some European policymakers acknowledged that regardless of the election outcome, Europe must increase its military spending. British Defence Secretary John Healey emphasized the need for European nations to shoulder more of the defense burden as the U.S. shifts its focus to the Indo-Pacific region.
A NATO official confirmed that alliance leaders had agreed on the necessity for expenditure beyond the current 2% of GDP target to address the shortfalls. Currently, 23 members meet or exceed this requirement. The official stressed that European allies must continue to enhance their defense capabilities, forces’ readiness, and ammunition stocks, regardless of the U.S. election results.
NATO is at its highest alert level since the Cold War, with officials like German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius warning of a potential Russian attack within five years. Despite the Russian economy being on a war footing, European governments may face resistance when seeking increased defense spending from taxpayers struggling with a cost-of-living crisis.
NATO’s overhaul focuses on defending Europe against possible Russian aggression, marking a shift from previous distant missions such as in Afghanistan. To withstand a Russian attack, NATO planners estimate the need for 35 to 50 additional brigades, translating to anywhere from 105,000 to 350,000 troops.
For instance, Germany would need 3-5 extra brigades or 20,000 to 30,000 additional combat troops, effectively adding one more division to the three it is currently equipping. The German defense ministry declined to comment on these classified plans.
Some European policymakers, including Estonia’s Tuuli Duneton, have suggested that NATO should consider raising the spending goal to 2.5% or 3% of GDP. The U.S. remains the largest contributor to NATO operations, with its 2024 defense spending estimated at $967.7 billion, far outpacing Germany’s $97.7 billion.
The selection of Senator J.D. Vance, a critic of NATO partners, as Donald Trump’s vice-presidential running mate has stirred concerns in Europe. Pentagon spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Charlie Dietz affirmed the U.S. support for European allies’ increased defense spending and significant progress in budget enhancements.
Under new defense plans, Germany will need to significantly expand its air defenses, including the number of Patriot batteries, to protect key military infrastructures and ensure the mobility of troops during a crisis. The cost will be considerable, with Berlin recently ordering four Patriot units for 1.35 billion euros.
Germany plans to halve its 2025 military aid to Ukraine, hoping Ukraine will manage its military needs with $50 billion in loans from frozen Russian assets approved by the Group of Seven.
Logistics planners are meticulously detailing how to sustain troops, ensuring bridges can support heavy military loads, and preparing for potential attacks on critical bases and ports. Enhanced cyber defenses are also necessary to protect against hacking that could disrupt troop movements.
NATO planners have identified numerous early warning indicators of a potential Russian invasion, although specific details remain classified. Europe must be prepared to deploy combat-ready troops swiftly in response to any Russian military movements, both as a deterrent and to engage if necessary.
