By Sumit Vishe
French voters commenced voting on Sunday in the first round of a sudden parliamentary election that could mark a significant shift in the country’s political landscape, potentially ushering in its first far-right government since World War Two. This election carries profound implications not only for France but also for its role within the European Union.
President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for this snap election followed a devastating defeat for his centrist coalition in recent European elections, where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), known for its eurosceptic and anti-immigrant stance, emerged victorious. Once considered a fringe party, the RN is now on the brink of seizing power in France.
Polling stations opened at 0600 GMT across various towns and cities, with voting set to conclude at 1600 GMT in smaller locales and at 1800 GMT in larger cities. The first exit polls and seat projections for the decisive second round, scheduled for July 7, are eagerly anticipated, although the complex electoral system means the final seat distribution won’t be confirmed until after the second round.
“We are going to win an absolute majority,” declared Le Pen confidently in a recent newspaper interview, predicting that her protege, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, could become the prime minister. The RN’s platform advocates for increased government spending and stricter immigration controls.
If the RN secures an absolute majority, it could lead to unprecedented diplomatic turbulence for France. Macron, committed to serving his term until 2027, and Bardella would likely clash over France’s stance on key EU policies and international relations.
At a polling station in Sevres, a suburb of Paris, 70-year-old former company director Didier Delacroix expressed his support for Macron’s alliance, stating, “Otherwise, it’ll be a complete mess.”
France has experienced “cohabitation” periods before, where the president and the government were from opposing political camps, but never with such starkly divergent ideologies vying for control.
Bardella has already signaled his intention to challenge Macron on global issues, potentially transforming France from a pillar of EU unity to a critical voice demanding changes in EU budget contributions and policies, particularly regarding defense.
A clear victory for the RN would also raise questions about France’s stance on international conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war, with Le Pen historically leaning towards pro-Russian sentiments. While the RN now claims to support Ukraine against Russian aggression, it has also outlined conditions that could limit French support.
Opinion polls indicate that the RN holds a comfortable lead with 33-36% of the popular vote, followed by the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, at 28-31%, and Macron’s centrist alliance trailing at 20-23%.
Vincent Martigny, a political science professor, highlighted the election’s unpredictability due to its electoral structure, where candidates need broad support to secure seats. The risk of split voting could potentially benefit the RN, Martigny noted.
For decades, French voters and parties opposed to the far right have united to prevent its ascent to national power. However, the current election dynamics suggest a shift, with uncertainties about whether Macron’s supporters or left-wing candidates might strategically withdraw from the second round to consolidate votes against the RN.
As the RN attempts to soften its image by denouncing antisemitism, critics argue that its policies continue to stigmatize Muslims and immigrants while attempting to maintain mainstream appeal.
The outcome of this election will not only determine France’s domestic policies but also its role in shaping European and global affairs in the years ahead.
